El desorden regional del Mediterráneo. Desafíos estratégicos una década después de la Primavera Árabe

Abstract

About a decade after the outbreak of the Arab Spring, the Mediterranean is characterized by regional disorder. A prospective analysis of the situation leaves an uncertain balance of the future of this strategic area. In Algeria, Lebanon or Iraq, new social mobilizations are assimilated to the past revolutions of Tunisia and Egypt. The unresolved conflicts of Libya in the Maghreb and Syria in the Middle East continue to generate instability in which the risks and threats of the Mediterranean as a whole are defined. Insecurity in the Sahel or the implementation of the Pact of the Century are factors that trigger alarms. The strategic independence of Turkey, the withdrawal of the United States, the reappearance of Russia or the expansion of Iran are factors that mark the complexity of international alliances in the region. The Barcelona Process-Union for the Mediterranean within the Foreign and Security Policy of the European Union offers a framework of stability. Spain must play a key role in the recovery of this process.